Reconstructing Past Fertility Schedules for Hard-to-Estimate Groups from CPS Data

Carl P. Schmertmann, Florida State University
Gray Swicegood, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Frank D. Bean, University of California, Irvine

We develop methods that use combined June CPS samples to estimate time series of age-specific fertility rate (ASFR) schedules for subpopulations not identified in US vital statistics reports. We use a new model for the shape of the ASFR schedule, and new statistical methods for extracting fertility information from CPS data. These innovations allow estimation of plausible and useful time series of ASFRs over 1965-2000, even for relatively small groups. Our main goal is to produce age- and time-specific estimates of the fertility of Mexican-born and other immigrant women while they reside in the US. These rates are important for understanding the expected and potential contribution of immigrant fertility to future US population change. The methods that we develop are also applicable to many other subpopulations of interest.