The Impact of Changing Family Structure on the Needs for Home Care Services in an Aging Society: The Canadian Case

Yves Carriere, Statistics Canada
Jacques Legare, Université de Montréal
Janice Keefe, Mount Saint Vincent University
Laurent Martel, Statistics Canada
Geoff Rowe, Statistics Canada
Xiaofen Lin, Statistics Canada

With an aging population it is expected that the number and proportion of disabled elderly will increase quite substantially. Disabilities often lead to difficulties in performing everyday activities. For those with informal support the assistance needed can be more readily available and recourse to the formal network is not always necessary. However, population aging has been in good part the result of decreasing fertility, limiting the number of children older persons may rely on in the future as the baby boomers reach older ages. Moreover, changes in the family structure, such as increased divorce rates, may also have a negative impact on the future availability of informal support. How these structural changes will affect the demand for formal home care services in the future? Using Statistics Canada's Life Paths micro-simulation model, we were able to shed some light on the future needs for these services up to 2031.