Fertility Intentions: Postpone or Reject a Birth? The Case of Bulgaria

Dimiter Philipov, Vienna Institute of Demography

Fertility in Bulgaria marked a swift drop during the last decade. Quantum dropped considerably, and the tempo effect was significant. A recent survey makes possible the study of fertility intentions of social, economic, and ideational factors, uncertainty, aspects of social capital. Fertility intentions are specified for having versus not having a child of a specific parity, as well as for the timing of an intended birth: within the next 2 years or later. These two specifications are analogous to level and timing of fertility. Problems of theory and adequate modeling are discussed. Findings based on a series of logistic regressions indicate how determinants of fertility intentions differentiate by parity of the intended birth (first or second) as well as by the intended timing of the birth.