Fertility Intentions: Postpone or Reject a Birth? The Case of Bulgaria
Dimiter Philipov, Vienna Institute of Demography
Fertility in Bulgaria marked a swift drop during the last decade. Quantum dropped considerably, and the tempo effect was significant. A recent survey makes possible the study of fertility intentions of social, economic, and ideational factors, uncertainty, aspects of social capital. Fertility intentions are specified for having versus not having a child of a specific parity, as well as for the timing of an intended birth: within the next 2 years or later. These two specifications are analogous to level and timing of fertility. Problems of theory and adequate modeling are discussed. Findings based on a series of logistic regressions indicate how determinants of fertility intentions differentiate by parity of the intended birth (first or second) as well as by the intended timing of the birth.
Presented in Session 131: Fertility Preferences