HIV/AIDS in Zambia: New Trends in Prevalence

Antonia M. Welch, Harvard University

HIV prevalence estimates obtained via antenatal surveillance in Zambia from 1994 - 1998 indicated a striking decline in prevalence, particularly among the 15 - 19 year olds. The recent round of antenatal surveillance has revealed a different trend--one of marked increase in prevalence among the same age group. Given that prevalence rates of 15 - 19 year olds can be used as an approximate indicator of incidence, this finding is particularly worrisome for its implications about the status of the pandemic in general in Zambia. The recent release of the nationally representative Zambian DHS2001-2 (including HIV prevalence data) enables detailed analyses on the risk factors with respect to HIV infection. It shows a significant difference in prevalence based on sex. I will use the antenatal surveillance data, the DHS data and supplementary data. The results will be critical in determining the appropriate programmatic steps to take in Zambia.