Health Based Population Forecasting: Analysis of the Effects of Smoking, Obesity, and Alcohol Consumption

Igor Akushevich, Duke University
Julia Kravchenko, Duke University

We analyze the influence of smoking, obesity and alcohol consumption on the projected characteristics of the U.S. population in 1, 20, 50 and 100 years, using microsimulation approach with creation of an individual life model and projection on a 'year by year' and 'individual by individual' basis. The effect of these risk factors on population characteristics is analyzed via their influence on age and sex specific fertility and mortality rates. Smoking obesity and alcohol consumption attributable diseases, and primary and secondary infertility in females are considered. The influence of these risk factors on U.S. population life expectancy, mean age at death, process of population aging are calculated. Implementation of this approach will produce new results practical use in medical, social and actuarial sciences, as well as allow us to estimate socio-economic effects of new medical technology applications.