The Future of Work in Russia: Population Projections and the Labor Force

Dennis J. Donahue, U.S. Census Bureau

This paper combines population projections for the Russian Federation with reported statistics on employment and rates of economic activity to assess changes in the size and composition of the Russian labor force. Due primarily to peculiarities in the Russian population age structure, the size of the potential labor force has increased substantially since 1989, even while the total population has decreased. In the near future, however, a rapid and continuous decline in the working age population is projected, as disproportionately large cohorts approach retirement, and the smaller cohorts of people born after the breakup of the Soviet Union enter the labor market. Changes in educational attainment, labor force participation rates and the effects of high levels of both emigration and immigration are also addressed.