Changes in Fertility and Infant Mortality Trends in Kazakhstan

Annie Dude, University of Chicago

In the past decade in Kazakhstan, fertility has dropped while infant mortality rates have almost doubled in only five years, following a steady improvement throughout the 1980s. I use DHS data to explore mechanisms behind these trends, as well as the potential consequences for the future adult population. Preliminary results suggest that the dropping fertility rates are concurrent with declining marriage rates and increased use of birth control among young women, which suggest that fertility rates may increase in the future if these women marry and have children to the same degree as previous generations, only at later ages. Counterbalancing this potential increase in fertility are high infant and child mortality rates.