Forecasting Best-Practice Life Expectancy to Forecast National Life Expectancy

James W. Vaupel, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Sabine Schnabel, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research

We develop methods for putting life expectancy forecasting in international context, so that correlations among countries (and between males and females) can be analyzed and taken into account. Life expectancy for females and males in various developed countries equals or lags behind the best-practice (i.e., record) level: the gaps grow and shrink over time. Hence, our strategy for studying life expectancy change is to analyze the pattern of changing gaps. It is complicated to study the correlations among many countries (and the two sexes) in life expectancy over time. Having a standard--in this case, the best-practice (female) level--facilitates analysis.

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Presented in Session 54: Population Forecasting