Rethinking the Demography of Iraq: What Do We Think Today about What We Thought 12 Months Ago?

Thomas M. McDevitt, U.S. Census Bureau

Today, as Iraq emerges from the shroud of secrecy imposed by the former regime, the Central Statistical Organization has begun to share the results of the previously unreleased 1997 General Census with the international community. These results cause us to question past assumptions about Iraq's population size, growth, and the components of change. This poster presents demographic data from the 1997 census, along with an evaluation of census data quality, and underscores sources of continuing uncertainty about Iraq's demography. The poster compares estimates of fertility and mortality based on the census with Census Bureau and United Nations estimates prepared prior to the release of figures from the 1997 census. Finally, the poster also compares levels and trends in fertility and mortality derived from the 1997 census and previously available sources with levels of fertility and mortality of other countries in the Middle East and Western Asia.