Very Low Fertility in South Korea: Patterns and Prospects

Minja K. Choe, East West Center
Seoung-Kwon Kim, Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs
Robert D. Retherford, East West Center

This paper examines patterns of very low fertility in South Korea since 1990 and discusses future prospects. Using census data of 1990, 1995, and 2000, and National Fertility Surveys conducted in 1991, 1994, 1997, and 2000, the paper examines patterns and covariates of first marriage and parity progressions to first, second, and third births. Fertility intentions are also analyzed and compared with actual fertility. The main focus of the analysis is how women's education affects marriage and parity progression after marriage, and how the number and gender preferences have changed during the period of very low fertility.