AIDS Mortality and the Mobility of Children in Rural Kwazulu-Natal, South Africa

Kathy Ford, University of Michigan
Victoria Hosegood, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

South Africa is experiencing a very severe AIDS epidemic. As a consequence of this, an estimated 4 million children, or about 10% of the entire population will be orphaned by the year 2015 (Whiteside and Sunter, 2000). The objective of this study is to examine the impact of maternal AIDS deaths on the mobility and living arrangements of children. Data will be drawn from the Demographic Surveillance System of 11,000 households of the Africa Centre in Matubatuba, South Africa. Initial analyses of these data showed that there was no evidence of an increasing number of child headed households. Hazard models for children who were living with their mothers when they died identified a number of household factors related to leaving the household including the socioeconomic status of the household, the presence of adult males and females, the age of the child, and the presence of other children.