Post-Census 2000 Population Estimates for the Municipios of Puerto Rico: The Traditional Demographic Formula in the Context of a Regression Estimation Technique

Matthew Christenson, U.S. Census Bureau

In this presentation, I describe a new method being investigated by the U.S. Census Bureau for producing the official estimates of total population for the municipios of Puerto Rico and present preliminary results from its application. This method consists of a demographic-component estimation technique couched in a regression framework. As such, the components of population change (births, deaths, and migration) are treated as parameters to be estimated, with particular emphasis on estimating the level of migration. The resulting component estimates are then combined into a set of total population estimates for the 1990s and confidence intervals are calculated for these estimates. Finally, these test estimates are evaluated in light of the results from Census 2000.