Forecasting Long Run Economic Growth in India: An Application of Probabilistic Demographic Projections

Alexia Fuernkranz-Prskawetz, Vienna Institute of Demography
Tomas Kögel, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Sergei Scherbov, Vienna Institute of Demography
Warren C. Sanderson, Stony Brook University, State University of New York

During recent years there has been an increasing awareness of the explanatory power of demographic variables in economic growth regressions. We use results from this literature and demonstrate that demographic changes have not only shaped the past but accounting for uncertainty in the future evolution can guide projections of economic variables. We apply recent probabilistic demographic projections based on expert opinion for India to derive the uncertainty of predicted economic growth caused by the uncertainty in demographic developments.

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Presented in Session 54: Population Forecasting