Multivariate Cohort-Based Analysis of Individual Risk of Mortality in Malawi: The Effects of Children Ever Born and School Attainment

Henry V. Doctor, Navrongo Health Research Centre

Few developing countries have longitudinal data to estimate adult mortality. In an effort to better understand the effects of parity and school attainment on the survival of older women in Malawi, this study uses a method than can be applied when one observes the same cohort in two cross-section samples collected at different points in time. This method allows for the estimation of log-probability survivorship models that estimate the influence of multiple time-invariant factors on survival over a time interval separating two samples (Hill 1999). Using Malawi 1987 and 1998 census data, the results show that women with low parity have higher chances of surviving than those with high parity. School attainment also matters in predicting survival in that women with at least primary school education have higher chances of surviving than those without. This study demonstrates the usefulness of census data in exploring new avenues in social science research.